Chicago Cluster®  Special Action/Research Event Prediction Markets Summit - Chicago Agenda Wednesday, June 7, 2006 8:00am - 5:00pm Secure Registration (online registration in advance required.)   Sponsors Resources Subscribe to Prediction Markets Email: Prediction Markets Briefing Channel Wikipedia: Prediction Markets Description of Information Markets Prediction Market Blogs: Chris F. Masse Free Market Trade Pancrit Competitive Intelligence Washington Stock Exchange Risk Markets -- Jason Ruspini

Chicago Cluster®  Venue University of Chicago Gleacher Executive Center University of Chicago Graduate School of Business - Gleacher Executive Center 450 North Cityfront Plaza Drive Chicago, Illinois 60611 USA http://www.gleachercenter.com/ 312.464.8660     Directions, Parking, Transit

 

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Summer 2006

Chicago Prediction Markets Summit

Secure Registration
(online registration in advance required.)
 

Wednesday, June 7, 2006 8:00am - 5:00pm

Time	Interaction	Speaker
7:15 - 8:15	Coffee and Registration	Staff
8:15 - 8:30	Introduction, Agenda, Logistics Prediction Markets Clusters
8:30 - 9:15	Prediction Markets: Cost Benefit Analysis	Robin Hanson Professor, Economist, Polymath
9:15 - 10:00	Prediction Markets: Theory and Practice	Justin Wolfers Assistant Professor of Business Public Policy
10:00 - 10:30	Morning Break	All
10:30 - 11:00	Tradesports: Person-to-Person Trading Exchanges	John Delaney  CEO & Founder Intrade & TradeSports
11:00 - 11:30	Enterprise Prediction Markets: Key Applications and Next Practices	David Perry President
11:30 - 12:00	Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom	Emile Servan-Schreiber CEO
12:00 - 1:00	Special Keynote Presentation Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge	Cass R. Sunstein Karl N. Llewellyn Dist. Service Prof. of Jurisprudence, Law School, Dept. of Political Science and the College
1:00 - 2:00	Hosted Luncheon Gleacher Executive Center	All
2:00 -2:30	Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for  Prediction Markets	Chris Hibbert Principal Investigator
2:30 - 3:00	Collaborative Market Outlook Reconnaissance: Competitive Intelligence Next Practices to Understand Today & Anticipate Tomorrow	Arik Johnson Managing Director
3:00 - 3:30	The Regulatory Outlook for Prediction Markets Looking Through the Fog	Michael Gorham Director, IIT Center for Financial Markets
3:30 - 4:00	Afternoon Break	All
4:00 - 5:00	Panel The Future of Prediction Markets	Chris Hibbert (moderator) John Delaney Robin Hanson David Perry Emile Servan-Schreiber Cass R. Sunstein Justin Wolfers
5:00 - 6:00	Adjournment

Some Media Coverage

Abstract and Benefits

What are Prediction Markets?

Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction.

Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia: Prediction Markets)

Who uses Prediction Markets?

The list of companies using prediction markets to tap internal, future-focused knowledge is impressive. Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Ely Lily, HP and other top, knowledge-based leaders are achieving fundamental advancements in KM with these potent market technologies.

"...the idea of markets working within companies has started to seep into some of the nation's largest corporations. Companies from Microsoft to Eli Lilly and Hewlett-Packard are bringing the market inside, with workers trading futures contracts on such "commodities" as sales, product success and supplier behavior. The concept: a work force contains vast amounts of untapped, useful knowledge that a market can unlock. "Markets are likely to revolutionize corporate forecasting and decision making," says Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University, in Virginia, who has researched and developed markets. "Strategic decisions, such as mergers, product introductions, regional expansions and changing CEOs, could be effectively delegated to people far down the corporate hierarchy, people not selected by or even known to top management." (Time Magazine)

More resources: http://kmblogs.com/public/item/106758