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Prediction Markets "...this is a great group, very informative, lots to read/learn..." That is a widely shared sentiment. See: http://tinyurl.com/yxl9pc This is a good opportunity for an end-of-year Prediction Markets Cluster, Consortium and Community summary letter. It has been through the generous participation and collaboration of virtually all the worldwide prediction market thought leaders, vendors, entrepreneurs, corporations, developers and institutions that your community has made stunning gains is the understanding, deployment, awareness and pull-through of prediction markets worldwide in 2006. Congratulations to all! It is important to illuminate and continuously restate the outcomes sought by open, non-commercial, not for-profit community and consortium. This group and the PM Clusters and Consortium are open and inclusive. All are welcome. All encouraged to contribute. We are committed to the openness and advancement of prediction markets. The response and engagement of the community has been, well, off the chart! It is critical to take deliberate steps and apply resources to open up prediction markets to the masses, in the enterprise and with major institutions. They need to move from today's more technical research backwater into the commons. Your open consortium, w/w community, vendor confabs, sponsorship and authentic cluster conversations are really what opens the flood gates and brings prediction markets into the mainstream. Progress for this emerging field comes through collaboration and productive relationships. Markets are conversations. The strategic goal of the PM Consortium is to bring forward prediction markets into everyday practice for a wide range of people, practices and organizations through open collaboration and conversation. Your community began your journey in 2004. It was determined by the stakeholders and sponsors that open community, conversation and collaboration are how the truly substantial diffusion and adoption work gets done for prediction markets. Technical papers, scholarly works, mainstream media coverage, blogs, wikis, books, streams and so forth are all important and make some contribution. However, transformation and adoption is complex social flow process. It is essentially aided and abetted by community and conversation. With vibrant, continuous community interaction and attention, deployment and application increases rapidly. Over the last year, hundreds of the world's top thought leaders, entrepreneurs, enterprise leaders, researchers, venture capitalists, stakeholders and scholars have collaborated and participated in this critical, distributed prediction markets conversation. The objective was to calibrate the strategy and validate the tactics. See: SFO: http://www.pmcluster.com/SFO.htm NYC: http://www.pmcluster.com/NYC.htm CHI: http://www.pmcluster.com/CHI.htm VIE: http://www.pmcluster.com/VIE.htm The purpose of these distributed conversations was to determine the demand and interest in shaping the consortium to provide the resources rqr'd to move prediction markets into the forefront, and into the next stage of its growth lifecycle. The overwhelming response to these non-commercial, open and agnostic gatherings and the network services supporting them helped your community arrive at a strong, clear consensus. An open, not for-profit consortium is necessary to do the heavy lifting for awareness, regulation, diffusion, best practices and broad development of prediction markets worldwide. You have all been highly instrumental in creating fundamental advancements in prediction markets! Markets are conversations. 2007 will have even more distributed conversations, including Japan, China, broader Asia and Oceania. In addition, more open, community-based prediction market network resources are coming on-stream. There are new sponsor opportunities. 2007 is off to a very strong start in Washington, DC on 18 January 2007 with your AEI-Brookings Joint Center Prediction Markets Conference. The themes are public policy prediction markets, regulation and financial production markets. Other sponsors and speakers include Colabria, Numeria, NewsFutures, InTrade, Bob Hahn, Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and others. See: http://www.pmcluster.com/IAD.htm Early-bird registration is open. In the course of meeting many of you face-2-face over the last 24 months, the commitment to open community and your industry consortium is inspiring. Many of you are seasoned industry veterans and scholars having a deep, visceral appreciation of the importance of collaboration, relationships and conversation to ushering in social transformation and widespread adoption of prediction markets. Expansion and development of your community will assure your success in 2007 and beyond. Best wishes to all for a safe and prosperous new year! ### |
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