Prediction Markets Cluster®  Special Action/Research Summit Prediction Markets European Summit London, United Kingdom Thursday-Friday, 11-12, October 2007   Summit Notes -sponsors-     Subscribe to Prediction Markets Email:

Prediction Markets Cluster®  Summit Venue     Putney Embankment London SW15 1LB house@thamesrc.co.uk Tel/Fax: 020 8788 0798 Location Thames Rowing Club is situated on Putney Embankment, between Festing Road and Rotherwood Road. The nearest tube station is Putney Bridge, on the District Line. The nearest rail station is Putney, at the top of Putney High Street.   (enlarge)   Summit Notes

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Prediction Markets
European Summit

Summit Notes

Thursday 11 October 2:00-5:30
Special Prediction Markets Traders' Workshop
(complimentary for registered summit participants)

Time	Interaction	Sponsor
2:00 -3:30	Prediction Markets Industry Prediction Markets Industry Association: Strategy, Structure, Roles, Objectives	Special Working Group
3:30 - 4:00	Break	All
4:00 - 5:30	Prediction Markets Industry Prediction Markets Industry Association: Strategy, Structure, Roles, Objectives	Special Working Group
6:00	Prediction Markets Summit Reception

 

Prediction Markets
European Summit

Summit Notes

Friday 12 October 2007
8AM- 5PM

Time	Interaction	Speaker
8:00 - 8:30	Coffee and Registration	Staff
8:30 - 9:00	Enterprise PM Research         Information Markets: Dynamic Strategy Communication and  Multinational Risk Management	Bernd H. Ankenbrand Managing Director - The Knowledge Laboratory Dr. Michael Gebauer
9:00 - 9:30	Prediction Markets   The Prediction Markets Market Space: Trading Spaces for Collective Intelligence	John Delaney CEO
9:30 - 10:00	Prediction Markets Case Study   Prediction Markets in a Major Gaming Company	Matthew Fogarty Founder
10:00 - 10:30	Prediction Markets Research   Betting and Prediction Markets: Some History, Some Evidence and Some Thoughts	Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams Betting Research Unit Nottingham Business School
10:30 - 11:00	Morning Break	All
11:00 - 11:30	Markets and Applications Moving Toward a Wider Adoption: FT Predict Case Study	Will Speck  Director of Research and Business Development
11:30 - 12:00	Collective Intelligence Networks     Prediction Markets: Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom	Emile Servan-Schreiber
12:00 - 12:30	Markets and Applications        Microsoft Prediction Point: Making Prediction Markets More Accessible	Henry Berg Group Manager Information Markets Group
12:30 - 1:00	Markets and Applications      Nosco Information Exchange Moving from Public to Internal Prediction Markets	Jesper Müller-Krogstrup Oliver Bernhard Pedersen
1:00 -2:00	Prediction Markets Summit Europe Luncheon	All
2:00 -2:30	Practice and Application Small-Scale Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments and Findings	Jed D. Christiansen Principal Mercury Research
2:30 - 3:00	Research     Economics of Prediction Markets: Current and Future Research Directions	Peter Norman Sørensen Professor of Finance Department of Economics
3:00 - 3:30	Prediction Market Case Study       Prediction Markets for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation: Project and Technology Overview	Günther Fädler Peter Gollowitsch
3:30 - 4:00	Afternoon Break	All
4:00 - 4:30	Panel Conversation Diffusion and Adoption	TBD
4:30	Prediction Markets Summit Europe Adjournment

Media Coverage

Summit Notes

Abstract and Benefits

What are Prediction Markets?

Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, event derivatives and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
 
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)

Who uses Prediction Markets?

The list of companies using prediction markets to tap internal, future-focused knowledge is impressive. Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Ely Lily, HP and other top, knowledge-based leaders are achieving fundamental advancements for knowledge-based business with these potent market technologies.


"...the idea of markets working within companies has started to seep out into some of the nation's largest corporations. Companies from Microsoft to Eli Lilly and Hewlett-Packard are bringing the market inside, with workers trading futures contracts on such "commodities" as sales, product success and supplier behavior. The concept: a work force contains vast amounts of untapped, useful knowledge that a market can unlock. "Markets are likely to revolutionize corporate forecasting and decision making," says Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University, in Virginia, who has researched and developed markets. "Strategic decisions, such as mergers, product introductions, regional expansions and changing CEOs, could be effectively delegated to people far down the corporate hierarchy, people not selected by or even known to top management." (Time Magazine)
 

More resources: http://kmblogs.com/public/item/106758