Fall 2005  

                           

 

SF Bay Area & Silicon Valley KM Cluster®  Special Action/Research Event Prediction Markets Summit Summit Photos Courtesy of CommerceNet Friday, December, 2, 2005 8:00am - 5:00pm Registration (Secure, online registration in advance required) -sponsors-              CommerceNet Blog Prediction Markets Briefing Channel   Prediction Market Blogs Risk Markets -- Jason Ruspini Washington Stock Exchange Marginal Revolution Chris F. Masse Otter Group Pancrit     Press

SF Bay Area & Silicon Valley KM Cluster® Venue Mission Bay "Prepare to be Amazed" UCSF Mission Bay Mission Bay Community Center (The Large Red/Rust Building) Fisher Banquet Room (ground floor) 1675 Owens Street San Francisco, California USA   UCSF Mission Bay Directions

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Prediction Markets Summit

Friday, December, 2, 2005 8:00am - 5:00pm

Time	Interaction	Speaker
7:15 - 8:30	Coffee and Registration	Staff
8:30 - 8:45	Introduction, Agenda, Logistics Prediction Markets Summit
8:45 - 9:30	Tools Zocalo: An Open-Source Platform for  Prediction Markets	Chris Hibbert Principal Investigator CommerceNet Labs
9:30 - 10:15	Research and Practice Google Prediction Markets: Putting Crowd Wisdom to Work	Bo Cowgill Project Manager
10:15 - 11:00	Participant Introductions Morning Break	All
11:00 - 12:00	Special Keynote Presentation Prediction Markets at Hewlett-Packard	Bernardo A. Huberman Senior Fellow & Director Information Dynamics Lab HP Laboratories
12:00 - 1:00	Application Showcase Prediction Market Pioneers	Emile Servan-Schreiber, CEO Maurice Balick, CTO Newsfutures Mike Knesevitch, Director Intrade Russell Andersson Co-Founder, VP, Acting President HedgeStreet
1:00 -2:00	Hosted Luncheon	All
2:00 - 2:45	Research Paper Prediction Markets: Interpreting Prices as Probabilities	Eric Zitzewitz Assistant Professor of Strategic Management
2:45 - 3:30	Research and Practice Prediction Markets at Microsoft	Todd Proebsting Microsoft
3:30 - 3:45	Afternoon Break & Refreshments	All
3:45 - 4:30	Research and Practice Prediction Market Science and Technology at Yahoo!	David Pennock Yahoo! Research
4:30 - 5:00	The Future of Prediction Markets   Panel Conversation	Facilitator Chris Hibbert CommerceNet Labs Panel Emile Servan-Schreiber Maurice Balick Mike Knesevitch Russell Andersson Todd Proebsting David Pennock
5:00 - 6:00	Adjournment and Reception

Some Media Coverage

Abstract and Benefits

What are Prediction Markets?

Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
 
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)

Who uses Prediction Markets?

The list of companies using prediction markets to tap internal, future-focused knowledge is impressive. Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Ely Lily, HP and other top, knowledge-based leaders are achieving fundamental advancements in KM with these potent market technologies.


"...the idea of markets working within companies has started to seep out into some of the nation's largest corporations. Companies from Microsoft to Eli Lilly and Hewlett-Packard are bringing the market inside, with workers trading futures contracts on such "commodities" as sales, product success and supplier behavior. The concept: a work force contains vast amounts of untapped, useful knowledge that a market can unlock. "Markets are likely to revolutionize corporate forecasting and decision making," says Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University, in Virginia, who has researched and developed markets. "Strategic decisions, such as mergers, product introductions, regional expansions and changing CEOs, could be effectively delegated to people far down the corporate hierarchy, people not selected by or even known to top management." (Time Magazine)
 

More resources: http://kmblogs.com/public/item/106758