Prediction Markets Cluster®  Special Action/Research Summit Information and Prediction Markets European Summit Ludwig Urban Saal Haus der Industrie Schwarzenbergplatz 4 1031 Wien Thursday 2 November 2006   Registration Participants: $399/318€ (Secure, online registration in advance required) -sponsors- Prediction Market Blogs Risk Markets -- Jason Ruspini Washington Stock Exchange Marginal Revolution Free Market Trade Numeria Pancrit   Subscribe to Prediction Markets Email:

Prediction Markets Cluster®  Venue Ludwig Urban Saal Haus der Industrie Schwarzenbergplatz 4 1031 Wien

 

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Prediction Markets Summit - Europe

Secure Registration Form
(Secure, online registration in advance required)

Nov 2, 2006
8AM- 5PM

Time	Interaction	Speaker
8:00 - 8:30	Coffee and Registration	Staff
8:30 - 9:30	Research Information Markets Corporate Market Insight (paper)	Bernd H. Ankenbrand Managing Director The Knowledge Laboratory Dr. Michael Gebauer Advisor to the University President
9:30 - 10:00	Markets and Applications ProKons - Prediction Markets: Application Range of a Web 2.0 Software Solution	Günther Fädler Peter Gollowitsch
10:00 - 10:30	Markets and Applications European Prediction Markets:  Trading Uncertainty for Collective Wisdom	Emile Servan-Schreiber Co-founder, CEO
10:30 - 11:00	Enterprise Prediction Markets Internal Prediction Markets:  Working Intelligence for the World's Largest Steel Company	Javier Llera Fueyo Marketing & Market Intelligence Emile Servan-Schreiber Co-founder, CEO NewsFutures
11:00 - 11:30	Morning Break	All
11:30 - 12:30	Markets and Applications Prices as Information: A Next Generation Information Market	Hubertus Hofkirchner CEO
12:30 - 1:00	Markets and Applications  Fountains of Truth: The Trouble with Creating Knowledge	Peter J. Leitner CEO & Founder
1:00 -2:00	Luncheon	All
2:00 -2:30	Research  Small-Scale Prediction Markets: Practical Experiments and Findings	Jed D. Christiansen
2:30 - 3:00	Research Prediction Markets and Social Networks	Dr. Harald Katzmair General Manager
3:00 - 3:30	Break	All
3:30 - 4:30	Panel Conversation	Bernd H. Ankenbrand Dr. Michael Gebauer Hubertus Hofkirchner Peter J. Leitner Emile Servan-Schreiber
4:30	Prediction Markets Summit Europe Adjournment

Some Media Coverage

Abstract and Benefits

What are Prediction Markets?

Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.

People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a similar pool of participants.
 
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market. It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since 1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations. (Wikipedia)

Who uses Prediction Markets?

The list of companies using prediction markets to tap internal, future-focused knowledge is impressive. Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Ely Lily, HP and other top, knowledge-based leaders are achieving fundamental advancements in KM with these potent market technologies.


"...the idea of markets working within companies has started to seep out into some of the nation's largest corporations. Companies from Microsoft to Eli Lilly and Hewlett-Packard are bringing the market inside, with workers trading futures contracts on such "commodities" as sales, product success and supplier behavior. The concept: a work force contains vast amounts of untapped, useful knowledge that a market can unlock. "Markets are likely to revolutionize corporate forecasting and decision making," says Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University, in Virginia, who has researched and developed markets. "Strategic decisions, such as mergers, product introductions, regional expansions and changing CEOs, could be effectively delegated to people far down the corporate hierarchy, people not selected by or even known to top management." (Time Magazine)
 

More resources: http://kmblogs.com/public/item/106758